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An Information Guide to Duck Key in the Florida Keys


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Real Estate News and Forecasts - Florida Keys, South Florida and Nationally
posted January 2008

 

Data from the Fall 2007 comparing the first nine months of 2006 with January through September of 2007 shows that 12% fewer homes were sold Keys-wide, and the average sale price was reduced by about 7%.

Nationally the S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Index for the period ending October 2007 showed a drop in price nationally of 6.1%. The S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Indices Report is the leading measure of U.S. home prices. The Report showed broadbased declines in the prices of existing single family homes across the United States, marking the 10th consecutive month of negative annual returns and the 23rd consecutive month of decelerating returns.

For the South Florida region (Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties) the Case-Shiller Report showed home prices had dropped 12.4 percent

In December of 2007 the Miami Herald reported that home prices could be up, or down, depending on the source.

The chart below contrasts three different views.

SOURCE Prices South Florida Methodology  
S&P/Case-Shiller Fallen 12.4 percent Case-Shiller index only uses price changes for houses that has sold twice. In calculating prices data is weighted based on several factors such as how long between sales and whether a home may have been remodeled. Condos are excluded in the calculation.  
Florida Association of Realtors Dade and Broward median price virtually flat, Palm Beach prices declined 5 percent. The Florida Association of Realtors collects data from the Multiple Listing Service, and calculates the median price of all the homes sold during a particular month.  
Federal Government Broward house prices as of Sept. 30 were down 4.7 percent from a year ago, while Miami-Dade's prices were up 3.45 percent. The Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight Office analyzes home values reported on new mortgages and refinancings. Statistics are drawn only for mortgages of less than $417,000, the maximum amount covered by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.  

 

REALTORS AND EXPERTS COMMENTS AND FORCASTS

Michael Cannon - Veteran real estate analyst quoted in the Miami Herald.

1. ''Wall Street does not understand real estate,'' The Case-Shiller index and Computer models can't possibly account for the many variables that affect a home's sale.

2. Canon says The Multiple Listing Service data used only accounts for only about 42 percent of the market. Also in a market with so few sales of homes and condos, one gets an incomplete picture of the median price.

Robert Shiller - Author of Irrational Exuberance and Yale University economist and co-developer of Standard and Poor's S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

"The downward momentum is looking impressive right now and at the very least ought to be a source of worry about the future for home prices.

"We do not know where it is going to go from here."

Shiller forecast - "There is a probability of a continuing decline for a period of years, bringing prices in many cities down in the 10s of percent," "The bottom is hard to predict. I do not see it imminent and it could be five or 10 years too."

Shiller notes that the US futures markets have priced in declines in house prices in the short term, with contracts on the S&P Shiller index pointing to decreases of up to 14 per cent.

“American real estate values have already lost around $1 trillion. That could easily increase threefold over the next few years. This is a much bigger issue than sub-prime. We are talking trillions of dollars’ worth of losses.”

“Over the next five years, the futures contracts are pointing to losses of around 35 per cent in some areas, such as Florida, California and Las Vegas. There is a good chance that this housing recession will go on for years,” Shiller said.

Lehman Brothers' Forecast

Lehman Brothers sees an extended decline of 15 percent in national home prices from peak to trough. ."We look for home prices to fall well into 2009 as excess inventory is slowly cleared and foreclosed homes return to the market at a discounted price," Michelle Meyer, economist at Lehman Brothers said, "I would say the housing shock is about half-way over, I think we still have a big correction ahead of us."

SunTrust Banks

Gregory Miller, chief economist at SunTrust Banks in Atlanta forecasts, "Maybe late in 2008 we'll see some markets beginning to recover." For the nation as a whole, Miller thinks " . . . the end of 2008 is probably as optimistic as one would want to get. More likely, we'll be well into 2009 before we start describing this housing cycle as 'in recovery."'

National Association of Realtors - Some good news

Existing homes sales did better in November of 2007. The Realtors Association said that existing-home sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5 million units, which was slightly better than the pace for October - sales of existing single-family homes, condominiums and townhouses rose 0.4 percent in November from October.

In the West, existing home sales jumped 10.3 percent. In the Midwest sales were flat. In the South and Northeast sales of existing homes fell by 2 percent 3.3 percent respectively.

Sales at the adjusted annual rate of 5 million units were 20% below the year-ago rate of 6.25 million units.

New home sales for November according to the Census Bureau dropped by 9 percent from the month of October to a pace of 647,000, the lowest in more than 12 years. Inventories reached record levels.

 

LINKS TO PAST REAL ESTATE NEWS FROM DUCK KEY ONLINE

September 2007 Real Estate News - Facts and figures on residential home sales. (Duck Key trends, Florida Keys, Tropical Breezes, Foreclosures, Economic trends in Monroe County)

Price Declines - Buy High, Sell Low - September 2007

For more go to Real Estate News - May 2007 - Facts and figures on residential home sales. (Duck Key trends, Florida Keys, Tropical Breezes, Economic trends in Monroe County, Real Estate Bubble)

Florida Keys, Key West and Duck Key Real Estate News 2006

Duck Key Real Estate News - Summer 2006 - The Monroe County Online Data Center

Monroe County Records also provides Maps of Duck Key presenting a visual representation of real estate sales for years 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, and 2006.