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Duck Key in the Florida Keys

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Real Estate News - Duck Key, May 2009

 

HAWK'S CAY VILLA SALES SHOW IMPROVEMENT

There are currently 11 villa sales pending. This is a significant development. Prices have depreciated to the point where villas are attracting buyers again.

Of the 11 pending sales 6 villas are listed to sell for less than the seller previously paid for the property.

Villa # 7020 listed at $280,000. This villa sold in 4/2000 for $249,000.

Villa # 7018 listed at $289,999. This villa sold for for $687,000 in 7/2004.

Villa # 7009 listed at $339,000. Previously old for $312,000 in 11/2001.

SOLD $369,000 - Villa 7001 listed at $369,999. Previously sold for $476,000 on 7/2004.

Villa # 5025 listed at $375,000. Previously sold for $725,000 on 12/2004

Villa # 6005 listed at $399,000. Previously sold for $800,000 on 7/2005.

Villa #5021 listed at $415,000. Previously sold for $683,500 on 11/2006.

Villa # 6006 listed at $449,000. Previously sold for $425,000 on 8/2007. Earlier had sold for $713,000 on 7/2004.

Villa # 2007 listed at $699,000. Previously sold for $1,050,000 on 4/2005.

Sold $520,000 - Villa # 7048 listed at $699,000. Previously sold for $472,000 on 7/2004.

Villa # 7228 listed at $785,000. Previously sold for $$660,000 on 10/2003.

 

 

FLORIDA KEYS HOME VALUES CONTINUE TO DROP

The chart below shows the number of homes sold from 2002 to present, the average sale price, and the number of homes listed for sale.

The average home price as of March 2009 for a Florida Keys home has declined 38% from the peak average home price reached in 2006.

  end of 2002 end of 2003 end of 2004 end of 2005 end
of 2006


end of 2007

end
of
2008

First Quarter
2009


 
Number of Sales 3089 3390 3510 2752

1500

1311 1166

278

   
Aver. Sale Price 323K 433K 563K 782K

802K

731K 588K

494K

   
Number for Sale 1822 1810 1818 3469 4,629 4585 4424

4449

   

The average sale price for the First Quarter of 2009 (494k) was $237,000 less than the average sale price of 2007 (731K). The difference between the peak average sale price for 2006 (802k) and present is $408,000. The average home is currently selling for what it was in the summer of 2004.

The home price on average has lost all the gain made since that time, and prices are expected to continue cycling downward until the excess inventory of homes for sale is sold off.

 

BAD NEWS FOR SELLERS

Tropical Breezes, the Coldwell Banker Schmitt Real Estate Newsletter for Spring 2009, reports that home sales are up by about 4 % over the same period last year. While the 4% rise in the number of sales represents an increase, during the same time home prices declined by 22 percent.The average Florida Keys sale price of $494,000 has returned to what it was in the summer of 2004.


GOOD NEWS FOR BUYERS

Realtor Brian Schmitt comments that "The problem for sellers is that this is a buyers' market, . . . buyers will continue to drive prices lower until the inventory is depleted from its present levels." Schmitt advised sales agents in an internal forcast that he believes sales will continue to pick up but that

In a memo to sales associates, Schmitt predicted that in the coming year hme sales will continue to inprove thanks to reduction in home prices and low interest rates. He also believes that foreclosure and short sales combined with high inventory of homes on the market will boost sales. He also predicted that high inventories and an increasing number of short and foreclosure sales will continue to push prices down.

Home prices could drop another 8 to 12 percent by the end of 2009.


American Caribbean Real Estate and Marr Properties conducted their own MLS analysis and came up with slightly different numbers. They showed 301 properties sold Keyswide during the first quarter of the year with an average sales price of $464,000, a figure which is $30,000 lower than the Coldwell Banker report.

 

SOUTH FLORIDA


Moody's Economy.com believes house prices in South Florida will hit bottom in the second half of next year (2010) .

 

NEGATIVE EQUITY

Of all the homes bought in South Florida in 2006, Zillow's peak year for the housing boom, nearly nine out of 10 (88 percent) are now worth less than what the owners owe. Buyers from 2006 are now underwater with the median negative equity of about $72,000.

While the housing market in South Florida has shown faint signs of recovery, many property owners have mortgage debt that exceeds the value of their property. they are ''upside down'' -- meaning they owe more than their homes are worth. Median negative equity is the dollar amount at which half the homes were valued for less than the outstanding mortgage debt, and half for more.

Realtor statistics indicate that home buyers who purchased
between the years 2005 - 2007 have seen median prices fall by almost 50 percent in Miami-Dade and 41 percent in Broward.


 

NATIONAL INDEX

Housing Market bad news -- March 2009

The chart below shows the index levels for the U.S. National Home Price Index, as well as its annual returns. As of March 2009, average home prices across the United States are at similar levels to what they were in the fourth quarter of 2002.

As previously noted above (Florida Keys Home Values) the average home price in the Florida Keys is at a similar level to what it was in the fourth quarter of 2004.

From the peak in the second quarter of 2006, average home prices as represented by data of the U.S. National Home Price Index are down 32.2%.


 

 

Home Prices, by Metro Area - evidence that the housing sector is still weakening.

Below, see some figures from the 20 metro areas Case-Shiller data.

About the numbers: The Case Shiller indices (Table below) have a base value of 100 in January 2000. So a current index value for Miami of 148.87 translates an approximate 49% appreciation rate since January 2000 for a typical home located within the metro Miami market. The minus 28.7% (circle in red) represents the percent of decline from the peak value reached.

The S&P/Case-Shiller national home-price index fell 19.1% in the first quarter versus a year earlier -- the steepest decline in 21-year history of the data. A separate, monthly index of home prices in 20 large metropolitan areas posted a record 18.7% year-over year decline in March.

 

Minneapolis had a record monthly decline of 6.1% in March. This represents the largest monthly decline of any metro area in the history of the indices.

For March, Detroit and New York also reported their largest monthly declines, returning -4.9% and -2.5%, respectively. The performances of these two MSAs represent the extremes of the national boom/bust scenario. The New York index is still up 73.4% from January 2000, though down 19.7% from its June 2006 peak. The Detroit index is 29.0% lower than in January 2000. Detroit home prices are back to their mid-1995 levels.

In terms of annual declines, the three worst performing MSAs continue to be the same three from the Sunbelt, each reporting negative returns in excess of 30%. Phoenix was down 36.0%, Las Vegas declined 31.2% and San Francisco fell 30.1%.

Denver, Dallas and Boston continue to fare the best in terms of annual declines down 5.5%, 5.6% and 8.0%, respectively.

 

Data from peak-thru-March 2009

Looking at data from peak-thru-March 2009, Dallas has suffered the least, down 11.1% from its peak in June 2007; while Phoenix is down 53.0% from its peak in June of 2006. All of the 20 metro areas are in double digit declines from their peaks, with ten of the MSAs posting declines of greater than 30% and two of those – Phoenix and Las Vegas – in excess of 50%.

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