Real Estate News and Foreclosures - Duck Key, Florida Keys, Key West and Florida - June 2008 DUCK KEY Duck Keys has had several homes and villas foreclosed on in the past two years. As of June 2008 there are residential homes in the preforeclosure stage located on Corsair Drive, West Seaview Circle (2), Indies Drive (2), Bahama Drive, and Schooner Lane. On the commercial part of Duck Key villas located on Marina Drive and Harbor Village Drive have reached the preforeclosure stage. A screen shot image of Duck Key shows the "general" location of properties at preforeclosure stage. Foreclosure sales is a symptom of worsening conditions in the weakest housing markets and it is also a cause. The inventory of homes for sale is increasingly held by banks eager to unload foreclosed properties at fire-sale prices rather than carry the costs on their books. FLORIDA KEYS The chart below showing the imbalance between inventory of homes for sale and the number sold has been updated for they year end 2007 and first quarter of 2008. 1500 802K The number of properties for sale had increased by the end of the first quarter of 2008. The average sale price continued to decline and if the number of sales is projected thoughout the year the number of sales will have declined as well. On average the actual sales price of homes represents about 80.6% of the initial listing price. Coldwell Banker Schmitt Real Estate sees a "highly competitive market for sellers" with "buyers waiting for the market to find the bottom to commit." The Schmitt Spring 08 newsletter believes there will be continued pressure on price due to the rise in inventory and evidence of sales prices continuing to decline. "Properties priced competitively receive offers." "Are you better off?" In answer to the question, "Are you better off?"Schmitt Real Estate believes that "As long as you didn’t acquire your property in the past couple of years, you are way ahead today." Their newsletter provides an analysis using statistics from the 1990s. They determined that the increase in sales price for all types of real estate in The Keys averaged 5% per year. Carrying that 5% trend into 2008 and compounding the 5% factor Schmitt Real Estate generated values which they then compared against actual average sales prices. They found that property owners were still better off even after the price dmore than the 5% trend figureeclines of 2006 , 2007, and 2008 when compared to the 5% trend line of the 1990s continued through to today. Non waterfront Condos and Townhomess in Key West are selling for 17% more than the 5% per year trend value. Waterfront Condo/townhomes in Key West are selling for 89% more. In the Upper and Lower Keys waterfront condo/townhomes are selling for 114% more than the 5% per year trend figure.Waterfront lots in Key West are selling on average for 320% over the 5% trend value. For Key West, the Upper and Lower Keys, single family waterfront home sales prices are 45% to 68% higher now than the average increase of 5% per year trend generate during the prior decade. To view the Spring 2008 Tropical Breezes Newsletter go to Spring08Newsletter. DUCK KEY VALUES The chart generated from Zillow.com shows a trend line with the average property value declining from 2006 to January 2008 by approximately $300,000. According to Zillow values on Duck Key dropped 3.3% from January 2007 to 2008. NATIONAL TRENDS Housing Market bad news -- March 2008 The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price indexes showed home prices across the country fell 14% from a year earlier, representing the largest drop in the 20-year history of the indexes. From the fourth quarter, prices fell 6.7%. Home prices in 10 major metropolitan areas fell 15% in March from a year earlier and 2.4% from February. In 20 major metropolitan areas, home prices dropped 14% from a year earlier and 2.2% from February. Miami prices dropped 24.6 percent from a year earlier. Tampa dropped 19.6
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Florida is ranked 2nd in the country in loan failures. In the prior year there were approximately 35,000 homes in foreclosure. Now Florida has roughly 163,000 homes in foreclosure. Declining property values started a new wave of home-loan delinquencies in Florida during the first three months of 2008.
More than 95 percent of the foreclosed properties for sale were being bought back by lenders.
end of 2002
end of 2003
end of 2004
end of 2005
end
of 2006
end of 2007
as of 1st quarter 2008
Number of Sales
3089
3390
3510
2752
1311
266
Aver. Sale Price
323K
433K
563K
782K
731K
635K
Number for Sale
1822
1810
1818
3469
4,629
4585
4856
What is Ahead for the Keys Real Estate Market?
Source: Standard & Poor’s and FiservData
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